Why a credit crisis? Banks made bad loans - instalments are in deafult. The bank has to write off the loan. The loans that a bank provides is directly related to the investments and owned funds they have. When they have losses these funds reduce and the credit they can offer others are less. This will lead to a crisis in credit as well as liquidity.
But the roots of the problem stems from greed. When property prices were going up, even if a guy did not a $20 bill , could buy a house on a 100% interest - only loan. Overall, I guess better sense should prevail.
I think Coca-Cola (symbol KO) is now available at a discount. The share’s high during this year was 68, low was 49, it is now trading around 51.This company has a long history, a great brand image and is well diversified geographically. The overseas business is reported to be growing at 5%, whereas, US sales are flat.I have certain benchmarks when I park my retirement funds. The company should have a year over year sales and earnings growth, cash flow from operations should be around 100% of profits and most importantly, the earnings should be at least 25% of net worth. Since I invest for long term, as long as the company earns 25% return on net worth, the results will get reflected in share prices over a period of time.The company’s net income applicable to common shares ( Source: Yahoo finance) was 5,981M, 5,080M and 4,872M. Shareholders equity on the last three year ends was 21,944M, 16,920M and 16,355. This translates to a return of 27%, 30% and 29% for years ended Dec 31, 07, Dec 31 06 and Dec 31 05.The company pays a dividend that yields 2.9% per year at current prices, not bad at all. The company has a DRIP program where they reinvest dividends for you at a very low cost.Always consult your investment advisor before you invest in any stock.;Technorati Tags: Stock investing, shares investing, great returns, stock market
Yahoo news reports that the economic downturn has started changing consumer behavior patterns. Some of the very obvious changes are fueled by rising gas prices and job losses. Rising fuel prices are causing people to drive less, concept of “staycations” are gaining ground. The job losses will lead to lower overall spending. So, which are the companies that will benefit from this trend and which are the ones that will lose? The big three automotive companies have lost ground year after year. They will have to retool their gas guzzlers vehicles to small cars. Airline companies are losing billions. Credit card companies may post losses due to defaults on payments. Banks have been on a roller coaster for several months now.There are two companies that I think will continue to do well. Wal Mart, yes the retail giant, will see higher sales and profit. When the economy is in a downturn people conserve cash and look for value for money and not brand nmes. Pharma companies will do well. Johnson and Johnson is a company that I admire. They are doing very well. Coca cola is another consumer giant that will do well. They have been reporting results of 20% on their net worth. The price is low now, because the US sales are flat and they are contemplating a price increase. But their overseas sales have grown by 5% last year.
Yahoo news reports that the President will lift the prohibition to off shore drilling, imposed by his father in 1990.There are two prohibitions to off shore drilling, one imposed by the Congress and the other through an executive order. This is one of the responses by the current White house to the surging gasoline prices. Let us see what kind of an impact this can have on gas prices.1. It will send a message to Congress to do likewise in lifting a ban on off shore drilling2. It will demonstrate to the American public that the administration wants to do something about the spiraling prices.Can it have an impact? I doubt it. It will take at least a decade to move to production from the time, test drilling takes place.It does have a symbolic effect. We have not seen any reduction in gas prices at the pump. One piece of good news though. In the last 2 weeks, gas prices at the pump rose only by a penny. Maybe it is stabilizing at the current levels.
Two announcements came in last week. Starbucks plans to close 100 stores. Wal Mart report highest sales month in last 4 years. This should be a classic investing lesson.
When disposable incomes increase, products get a following. Starbucks is a great example. Starbucks lovers swear by its products. It gets a following. The company posts good results. Stock values go higher and higher. In lean times, the people flock to the best value for money. The economy is going thru lean times.Wal mart posts great results.
Trends are usually to be found in personal items and consumption industries. American eagle outfitters is a good clothing company. In times when the economy prospers, these companies post great results.
Find companies that are not subject to trends- pharma companies are good examples. There is no seasonality for pharma companies and most companies, post great results year after year.
Gas prices ae high. So what else is new? There are three things we can do. We can buy gas companies stocks , a great idea. We can travel less, not possible unless we stay close to work and can commute on a bicycle. The third option is to get a hybrid. Expensive and the cost benefit math does not work yet.
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Can this recession lead to a Depression like in the Twenties? In an interview, US treasury Secretary had this to say. In the Great depression there was a 25% unemployment rate, today the rate is 5%. In the great depression, the foreclosures were at 50%, today it is at 2% and 90% of the mortgage payments are on time.So it is highly doubtful whether the recession - no one calls it that anyway- might move to a full blown depression.
In an inteview published by Yahoo news the Secretary had this to say to the BBC .”Asked by the broadcaster whether the credit crunch or price rises were more of an issue, he said: “When you look around the world broadly, I think inflation … is getting the number one focus, when you look at emerging markets, whether its China, or Russia.”
Addressing inflation is the prime concern now. Look at it this way. Assume that you get returns of 5% on your investments. If inflation is at 5%, real returns are Zero. If there is no inflation , but let us say a 100% income tax, the real rate of return is still Zero.Inflation was fueled by low interest rates that reduced the value of the dollar. This lead to an oil price hike that lead to spiralling inflation.
The following weeks will tell us how the feds will contain inflation. Shold be interesting to watch.
Oil stocks have been reaching new highs. Here are 7 reasons why they are still a good buy1. Saudis - the largest exporter of oil announced an additional 300K barrels a day. The market just ignored this and oil price rallied.2. The gap between supply and demand is 2 million barrels and there is no short term solution for this.3. India and China are becoming top consumers - India last year put 1.5M automobiles on the road.4. Frequent interruptions to production in Nigeria - a major oil exporter to the US.5. Exports from Mexico - the third largest exporter to the US not growing sufficiently.5. US needs to keep borrowing cheap with low interest rates to kick start their economy6. Media and oil executives sometimes talk about oil reaching $200/bl.7. It will take 10 years for offshore and arctic drilling to impact gas prices at the pump.Bottom line - when supply exceeds demand and there is no short-term method to increase supplies, prices will go up. Oil Company stocks too.
Always, consult your investment advisor before you invest in stocks